{"id":38049,"date":"2024-10-16T11:44:50","date_gmt":"2024-10-16T09:44:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sandp.ch\/perspectives-du-marche-t4-2024\/"},"modified":"2026-01-27T13:40:04","modified_gmt":"2026-01-27T12:40:04","slug":"market-outlook-q4-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sandp.ch\/fr\/market-outlook-q4-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Perspectives du march\u00e9 T1 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Perspectives du march\u00e9 T1 2026<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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Perspectives du march\u00e9 T1 2026<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Au d\u00e9but du premier trimestre 2026, avec un indice S&P 500 proche de 6 940 points, la croissance mondiale ralentit \u00e0 3,0 % dans un contexte marqu\u00e9 par la r\u00e9silience des \u00c9tats-Unis gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l’intelligence artificielle, les tensions commerciales et la prudence des banques centrales. La zone euro pr\u00e9voit une croissance de 1,2 \u00e0 1,4 % gr\u00e2ce aux mesures de relance budg\u00e9taire allemandes, malgr\u00e9 la persistance de difficult\u00e9s dans le secteur manufacturier. Mettre l’accent sur la qualit\u00e9, la diversification et la pr\u00e9servation de la liquidit\u00e9.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Le S&P 500 vise 7 100 \u00e0 8 000 points, soit un gain potentiel de 3 \u00e0 17 % sur une croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices de 10 \u00e0 14 % gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la productivit\u00e9 de l’IA, bien que les valorisations proches de 40 fois le CAPE de Shiller marquent le deuxi\u00e8me niveau le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 de l’histoire. La Fed maintient ses taux entre 3,50 % et 3,75 %, avec seulement 1 \u00e0 2 baisses pr\u00e9vues en 2026, alors que l’inflation oscille autour de 3 %. Les rendements \u00e0 10 ans restent entre 4,0 % et 4,5 %, limitant ainsi le potentiel de hausse des obligations. Privil\u00e9giez les valeurs d\u00e9fensives du secteur de la sant\u00e9, les biens de consommation courante et certaines technologies.<\/p>\n

Les actions europ\u00e9ennes se n\u00e9gocient \u00e0 14-15 fois les b\u00e9n\u00e9fice, soit une d\u00e9cote de 35 % par rapport aux \u00c9tats-Unis. La BCE maintient son taux \u00e0 2,0 %, avec une inflation pr\u00e9vue \u00e0 2,1 % en 2025, puis en baisse \u00e0 1,9 % en 2026. Apr\u00e8s huit baisses jusqu’en d\u00e9cembre 2025, les taux devraient rester stables tout au long de l’ann\u00e9e 2026. Ciblez les entreprises ax\u00e9es sur le march\u00e9 int\u00e9rieur, la d\u00e9fense et les services publics.<\/p>\n

L’or a atteint des records sup\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 4 870 $ l’once en janvier, avec des objectifs pour le premier trimestre compris entre 4 100 et 4 900 $ (Goldman \u00e0 4 400 $, UBS \u00e0 4 200-4 700 $) en raison des achats des banques centrales, des tensions g\u00e9opolitiques et de la demande de valeurs refuges. Risque : correction de 5 \u00e0 20 % si la politique est couronn\u00e9e de succ\u00e8s. Le Brent se stabilise entre 58 et 66 dollars le baril.<\/p>\n

Risques principaux : valorisations extr\u00eames \u00e0 40 fois le CAPE, incertitude politique, inflation persistante de 3 % risquant d’entra\u00eener un resserrement mon\u00e9taire, et hypoth\u00e8ses optimistes sur les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices dans un contexte de croissance mondiale de 3,0 %. Nous maintenons les allocations actuelles et pr\u00e9servons la liquidit\u00e9. Nous sugg\u00e9rons de ne r\u00e9\u00e9quilibrer qu’en cas de compression significative des valorisations ou d’orientation politique claire. La prudence plut\u00f4t que l’action pr\u00e9matur\u00e9e dans ce contexte de valorisation \u00e9lev\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Ce texte est un mat\u00e9riel de marketing publi\u00e9 par Schmid & Partners Management Services Ltd. Il n’est pas destin\u00e9 \u00e0 \u00eatre distribu\u00e9, publi\u00e9, fourni ou utilis\u00e9 par des personnes physiques ou morales qui sont citoyennes ou r\u00e9sidentes d’un \u00c9tat, d’un pays ou d’une juridiction o\u00f9 sa distribution, sa publication, sa fourniture ou son utilisation sont interdites par la loi. Il ne s’adresse \u00e0 aucune personne ou entit\u00e9 \u00e0 laquelle il serait ill\u00e9gal d’envoyer ce type de mat\u00e9riel de marketing.<\/p>\n

Ce texte est fourni \u00e0 titre d’information uniquement et ne doit pas \u00eatre interpr\u00e9t\u00e9 comme une offre, une sollicitation ou une recommandation pour la souscription, l’achat, la vente ou la garde de tout titre ou instrument financier, l’engagement dans toute autre transaction, la fourniture de tout conseil ou service d’investissement, ou comme un document contractuel. Il ne s’agit pas d’un conseil d’investissement, juridique, fiscal ou comptable, ni d’une d\u00e9claration selon laquelle un investissement ou une strat\u00e9gie est adapt\u00e9 ou appropri\u00e9 \u00e0 la situation d’un individu, ni d’un conseil d’investissement personnalis\u00e9 pour un investisseur.<\/p>\n

Ce texte refl\u00e8te les informations, les opinions et les commentaires de Schmid & Partners Management Services Ltd. qui peuvent \u00eatre modifi\u00e9s sans pr\u00e9avis.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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KONTAKT ANFRAGE <\/span><\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Pour plus d’informations, n’h\u00e9sitez pas \u00e0 nous contacter. <\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Contact<\/div>
nous<\/div><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Perspectives du march\u00e9 T1 2026 Perspectives du march\u00e9 T1 2026 Au d\u00e9but du premier trimestre 2026, avec un indice S&P 500 proche de 6 940 points, la croissance mondiale ralentit \u00e0 3,0 % dans un contexte marqu\u00e9 par la r\u00e9silience des \u00c9tats-Unis gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l’intelligence artificielle, les tensions commerciales et la prudence des banques centrales. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_header_footer","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38049","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-non-classifiee"],"yoast_head":"\nPerspectives du march\u00e9 T1 2026 - Schmid & Partners Management Services Ltd.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sandp.ch\/fr\/market-outlook-q4-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Perspectives du march\u00e9 T1 2026 - Schmid & Partners Management Services Ltd.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Perspectives du march\u00e9 T1 2026 Perspectives du march\u00e9 T1 2026 Au d\u00e9but du premier trimestre 2026, avec un indice S&P 500 proche de 6 940 points, la croissance mondiale ralentit \u00e0 3,0 % dans un contexte marqu\u00e9 par la r\u00e9silience des \u00c9tats-Unis gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l’intelligence artificielle, les tensions commerciales et la prudence des banques centrales. 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